Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence. Stay Ahead.

6 billion tons of metals needed by 2050 to meet net-zero emissions, costing $2.1 trillion

The world will need 3 billion metric tons of metals from 2024 to 2050 to meet an economic transition scenario, where no long-term climate targets are hit — and, this doubles to 6 billion metric tons, to reach net-zero emissions.

The latest report, Transition Metals Outlook 2024, from BloombergNEF, expects such a net-zero transition to cost US$2.1 trillion. The investment needed in the copper industry surges 52% in the net zero scenario, to US$537 billion.

aluminium copper lithium supply demand 2030 2040 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

Despite a forecast growth in supply over the next 20 years, there will still not be enough metals to meet rising demand, especially under a pathway to net-zero emissions by 2050. For example:

lithium demand is expected to increase x17 from 2023-2050
manganese demand is expected to increase x15 from 2023-2050

percentage growth ev metals - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

One of the major challenges facing the industry is that investment in exploration has declined over the last 5 years due to falling commodity prices. This will impact the discovery of new deposits needed to build mines which, in the USA, can take more than 29 years.

And, as we have highlighted in our recent report, it’s not just net zero driving demand for critical minerals:

Artificial Intelligence and the next critical mineral supercycle

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