“Blue Horseshoe likes AMEX”

This bull run has us thinking.  It’s time for mid tier and big tier to gold companies to start buying stuff!!!!  Heck any day exploration companies are going to start ripping off bought deals.  With that in mind, I thought it was time to think about who are the next companies to get taken out. 

Gold price has seen an unprecedented move over the past year and — with what looks to be Fed rate cuts on the horizon and continued geopolitical turmoil — USD 5,000 gold projections are no longer reserved for folks wearing tin foil hats.  Many of the equities have followed gold’s move.  These moves, while historic, need to be placed in context.  For nearly a decade very little gold exploration has occurred.  Yet every single day gold miners take ore out of the ground…and have largely failed to replace those gold ounces with new discoveries or exploration dollars. So, gold majors aiming to meet demand will look to acquire junior miners, prioritizing those with a proven resource base, a top-tier jurisdiction, and development-ready permits and infrastructure. Time is now the critical factor.

The current gold price and lack of exploration is setting up for a wave of gold M&A. 

My top three gold take-out targets include AMEX Exploration, Troilus Gold, and Skeena Resources. 

I feel that the next one of the rank is going to be AMEX.

So, to get straight to why you’re here: my view is that a take out of AMEX Exploration at a premium is the next of the ranks.  Skeena comes into play once they have resolved their delayed permitting, and Troilus is ready to go as soon as a major puts their big boy pants on for a mega billion dollar plus deal!  

M&A is back.  And we are here to think about it.

Why I think AMEX Exploration is next Canadian gold target off the shelf

Let’s get straight to the top of the list: AMEX Exploration (TSX-V: AMX, FRA: MX0, OTCQX: AMXEF). For a major, acquiring AMEX’s flagship Perron Project is like finding a turnkey penthouse in the best part of town.

The location? It’s Quebec’s Abitibi Greenstone Belt, one of the world’s most productive gold regions and a global top-tier jurisdiction. The resource? It’s world-class, especially the Champagne Zone, which is essentially a high-grade gold factory with 831,000 ounces at an exceptional 16.20 g/t Au.

Crucially, the infrastructure is already there, meaning a major can skip the headache of building roads and power lines from scratch. 

Adding to the appeal is CEO Victor Cantore, who recently wrapped up a major deal at Northern Superior. He is fresh off the negotiating table, and his contact list of potential buyers is fully refreshed.

• Jurisdiction: located in Canada, one of the world’s leading mining jurisdictions, and Quebec provides stable permitting, competitive tax incentives, and a structural valuation premium. For the most part, I think, gold M&A is kicking off in Tier 1 jurisdictions before moving to Africa and other places
• Infrastructure: project benefits from direct road access and does not require the remote-camp model typical of Canada’s northern gold belts. Grid power already at site, with hydroelectric substation only few kms away, meaning AMEX will operate on low-cost, green Quebec hydro — a major advantage given rising energy costs across the sector
• First Nations Support: First Nations relations and issues are a major problem for permitting in Canada.  Each region has its own set of issues to confront.  The huge advantage that AMEX has in their project is that the First Nations here are highly experienced in mining and have multiple other projects and partners.  They are an experienced business minded counter party.  This is not the case all over Canada
• Work force: based in a district with an established local mining workforce, so no requirement to build an expensive fly-in/fly-out operation or large-scale remote camps
• Shareholder: shareholder base is anchored by Eldorado Gold, which recently increased its position to 17%, signalling strong conviction in the asset’s scale and development potential.
• Permitting: the next step for the company is a bulk sample permit that it anticipates receiving in the next few months
• CAPEX: 77 m
• Production Profile: AMEX’s project delivers 112,000 oz/year of gold production at high grades, underpinning strong margins and cash generation. The resource boasts an average grade of 5.4 g/t Au for 2.3 Moz, including 800,000 oz at 16.2 g/t Au, a rarity in today’s gold sector. Simple metallurgy.  It is free gold with a 99% recovery rate
• Land package:  Location…location…location Amex has over 400 sq km. From what I can see this is likely second only to Agnico Eagle in the region
• AISC – $1,061.  Gold is at 4k !!!!!
• No lakes, rivers or other major environmental issues

Troilus Gold is next up

After AMEX, Troilus is my next favorite.  They are advancing one of North America’s largest projects.  We have come up with a list of reasons we view it as an attractive M&A target.  We know the CEO loves it, in a recent interview he said “Based on historical success & current indicators, we are confident there remains significant upside both in the immediate mine trend and across the broader land package.”  In other words:

Troilus Gold (TSX: TLG) is advancing one of North America’s largest undeveloped gold-copper projects toward construction, supported by US$1.3 billion in financing LOIs and a US$700 million mandated debt package, with a build decision targeted for 2026 and first production expected near the end of the decade. The stock trades around US$1.50 in late November 2025.

• Project economics: Troilus’s 2024 Feasibility Study outlines a long-life, high-scale gold-copper operation with an after-tax NPV5% of approx US$885 million and a 14% IRR at base-case prices (US$1,975/oz Au, US$4.05/lb Cu, US$23/oz Ag). Pre-tax metrics rise to US$1.6 billion NPV5% and 18% IRR.The FS mine plan covers 22 years at 50 ktpd, producing 320 koz AuEq/yr, with life‑of‑mine cumulative after‑tax free cash flow estimated at roughly US$2.2 billion in the Base Case. Initial capex is US$1.08 billion, supported by a 22-year mine life and strong production base (303,000 oz AuEq/yr LOM; 536,400 oz in Yr 7)
• Development and financing strategy: Troilus has outlined a financing strategy of US$1.3 billion in financing LOIs from multiple export credit agencies, including EDC, Euler Hermes, EKN and Finnvera, plus a US$700 million mandated debt package led by EDC, Société Générale, KfW and EKN, as well as C$200+ million in cash. Offtake agreements with Aurubis and Boliden were signed in mid-2025, supporting bankability and sales diversification. With permitting advancing (ESIA filed June 2025; full approvals expected 2026) and engineering well underway, Troilus is targeting a construction decision in 2026 and start of major works in 2027
• Cost competitiveness (AISC and margins): Troilus is positioned in the first quartile of Canadian gold producers, with life-of-mine AISC of US$1,109/oz. The site is fed by low-carbon 3.1¢/kWh hydroelectric power, materially improving margins and reducing energy risk. Operating costs average US$19/t ore across mining, processing and G&A. Copper and silver credits account for 17% of revenue (copper alone 15%), improving margins relative to pure-gold peers. At base-case gold of US$1,975/oz, the project delivers strong operating margins; at spot, more than US$4,000/oz as of end of November 2025, margins expand materially
• Production profile and cash flow: over the 22-year mine life, Troilus is projected to recover 6.7 Moz AuEq and 3.0 Blbs CuEq. Early years (Y1–5) average 314,200 oz AuEq/yr, with sustained production of 300,000 oz AuEq/yr from Y6–22. Annual physical output includes 5.4 Moz gold, 382 Mlbs copper, and 9.9 Moz silver LOM. Troilus will also produce 74,900 WMT of copper concentrate annually with no deleterious elements and attractive gold/silver grades. The scale and longevity of production support significant long-term cash flow visibility, with strong optionality to higher metal prices

Jurisdiction and infrastructure advantage: located in Quebec, one of the world’s top mining jurisdictions, Troilus benefits from a brownfield site with estimated US$500 million of inherited infrastructure including power, roads, a permitted tailings facility, and an existing 50 MW substation. The project sits in a prolific gold belt near major producing mines, and enjoys strong provincial backing (+10% ownership by Quebec government investment arms). Community support is reinforced through long-running consultations and local procurement programs.

Skeena Gold & Silver

Finally, Skeena is going to go…it just needs to sort out permitting.  As to be expected in British Columbia, things are running behind.  But the cycle is here and I believe that as soon as they are permitted their days are numbered.

Skeena Gold & Silver (TSX/NYSE: SKE) recently secured a US$750 million funding package to fully finance its flagship Eskay Creek mine development, and is advancing toward production (targeted 2027), with shares trading around US$21 (~C$28) as of late November 2025.

• Project economics: Eskay Creek’s 2023 Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) highlights exceptional economics, including an after-tax NPV5% of C$2.0 billion (at $1,800/oz Au, $23/oz Ag base case) and an industry-leading 43% IRR. The initial capex is estimated at C$713 million, which is paid back in an estimated 1.2 years, yielding a very robust NPV-to-CAPEX ratio of about 2.8×. These metrics place Eskay Creek among the highest-return gold projects globally, underlining the Tier-1 potential of the mine’s economics
• Development and financing strategy: the company’s development plan is fully financed through a US$750 million package led by Orion Resource Partners (incl. US$350M senior loan, US$200M gold stream and US$100M equity, plus an overrun facility). This sequential funding (secured June 25, 2024) allows Skeena to build Eskay Creek without heavy equity dilution — only 121 million shares are outstanding — and Skeena currently trades at roughly 0.5× P/NAV on a spot-price basis, reflecting a significant valuation gap versus producing peers. With construction underway (benefiting from existing permits/infrastructure) and all major tranches of funding drawn, first production is targeted by 2027.
• Cost competitiveness (AISC and Margins): Eskay Creek is poised to be one of the lowest-cost gold mines. All-in sustaining costs are projected at US$684/oz AuEq over LOM, with the first 5 years even lower at approx US$538/oz AuEq (co-product), which is bottom of the industry cost curve. Thanks to substantial silver by-product credits, the effective gold AISC drops to roughly US$300/oz net of silver, indicating very high margins (on the order of 70% at $1,800 gold). Such ultra-low costs place Eskay Creek firmly in the lowest global quartile for AISC, ensuring robust profitability and resilience even if commodity prices soften
• Production profile and cash flow: Eskay Creek will be a large-scale producer with a front-loaded output. In years 1–5, it is slated to average 450,000 oz AuEq per year at an exceptionally high grade of 5.5 g/t AuEq (triple the global open-pit average grade), driving strong early revenues. This includes about 9.5 million oz of silver annually, making Eskay one of the largest silver producers in Canada and placing it in the top quartile of primary silver mines globally. The sizable silver (~35% of equivalent output) provides a valuable by-product credit. Overall, the 12-year mine life (4.6 Moz AuEq reserves) supports 370,000 oz AuEq/year on average, and the first 5 years alone are expected to yield ~C$474 million in after-tax free cash flow per year at base metal prices. This strong, early cash flow profile distinguishes Eskay Creek among peers and should facilitate rapid payback and internal funding of expansion or shareholder returns
• Jurisdiction and exploration upside: Eskay Creek is located in northwest British Columbia’s Golden Triangle, a stable, mining-friendly jurisdiction with significant infrastructure already in place. Being a brownfield site (the former Eskay Creek mine operated 1994–2008), the project benefits from an all-weather road and proximity to low-cost hydroelectric power, plus a permitted tailings facility, collectively saving over C$150 million in capex and reducing development risk. Skeena enjoys strong local and First Nations support, exemplified by a landmark agreement with the Tahltan Nation (the first-ever Section 7 agreement in Canada) and more than 20% Indigenous employment. Exploration upside is significant: the current reserve (4.6 Moz AuEq) reflects 75% conversion of known resources, indicating potential to grow reserves further. Management is already evaluating satellite deposits near Eskay that could backfill the later years of the mine plan, extending mine life and adding value beyond the already robust DFS outline.
• Upside from Snip project: beyond Eskay Creek, Skeena’s Snip project offers additional high-grade potential. Snip (100%-owned) is a past-producing underground mine located 40 km away; it historically produced ~1.1 Moz at 27.5 g/t Au (1991–1999). Today, Snip hosts an estimated 0.94 Moz (Indicated + Inferred) resource grading 9.35 g/t Au. This deposit represents a near-term growth opportunity: Skeena plans to truck Snip ore to Eskay’s mill in later years, leveraging Eskay Creek’s processing infrastructure. Integrating Snip’s high-grade ore could boost Eskay’s production profile and extend cash flows without major new capex, essentially providing a built-in second phase of growth at attractive grades

Will there be others under consideration? Of course, but these three offer the perfect combination of scale, jurisdiction, and development readiness that majors will be prioritizing.