Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

53 million tons of battery metals needed by 2040 to meet EV boom

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Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are on track to hit 22 million units in 2025 — up 25% from 2024 — according to BloombergNEF’s latest forecast. By 2030, that number jumps to 39 million, with EVs making up 42% of all new car sales globally.

To meet these record-breaking EV sales, at least 53 million tons of battery metals will be needed by 2040, from 12 million tons in 2025. Copper, aluminum and lithium form the largest part of this total weight, so by 2040, the lithium-ion battery industry will need:

15 million tons of copper under the net-zero scenario
7 million tons of lithium
12 million tons of aluminum

Required investment in cobalt nickel and lithium capacity under BNEFs Net Zero Scenario compared with 2024 actuals 1 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

China continues to dominate the global EV market, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global EV sales and 80% of new passenger EVs by 2030. Europe follows at 52%, while the US lags at just 27% amid policy rollbacks and reduced consumer subsidies. Notably, emerging markets are gaining ground: Thailand now has a higher EV adoption rate than the U.S., and Brazil outpaces Japan.

Global near term passenger EV sales and EV share of new passenger vehicle sales by market 1 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

Global long term passenger EV sales by market – Economic Transition Scenario 1 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

To meet the forecast demand, investment in battery metals surged 80% in 2024 to US$29 billion, matching the estimated peak year (2026) for annual upstream capex required under BNEF’s Net Zero Scenario.

But overcapacity and slumping EV demand in the US have already triggered a sharp correction. Battery markets are now oversupplied, prices are falling, and producers are cancelling or delaying projects to weather short-term market pain.

Meanwhile, battery prices globally dropped 20% in 2024, pushing average EV pack costs below $100/kWh in China. But U.S. and European prices remain higher, and further cost deflation is expected to moderate. Solid-state batteries are forecast to make up 10% of total battery demand by 2035, though less than 10% of announced capacity has been commissioned.

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