the oregon group logo

Investment Insights. Stay Ahead.

Goldman Sachs warns of commodity “Great De-Stocking”

Despite commodity prices moving against their forecasts, Goldman Sachs warns one of the main drivers will have significant impact on prices in the medium-turn.

“It is likely the largest physical and financial de-stocking the complex has ever witnessed; hence, the ‘great de-stocking.’ The bottom line is markets have cashed in on their insurance policies in the form of physical and financial hedges”

— Goldman Sachs, Commodity Views: The ‘great de-stocking’

But the market is still exposed to the upside as Western governments are proposing new insurance policies with the build up of green mineral strategic reserves to meet an expected surge in green demand. For example, France has set aside a €2billion fund to finance a secure supply of green critical minerals.

Goldman Sachs now forecasts the S&P GSCI to return 30.3% on a 12-month horizon.

And, for copper, they are forecasting a full year metal deficit (GSe 167kt vs. 248kt prior deficit) and expect a resurgence in upside after this trough phase (current price targets on a 3/6/12M basis of $7,750/9,200/10,000/t).

goldman sachs de stocking - The Oregon Group - Investment Insights

“Despite China’s copper demand growing by 5% y/y year-to-date, in line with our full-year expectation, over the same period net refined imports have fallen 15% y/y. With Western metals demand deteriorating over the same timeframe, this has left ex-China markets skewed toward surplus in the short term”

— Goldman Sachs, Commodity Views: The ‘great de-stocking’

Our analysis on the long-term trend for copper demand and supply:


The Oregon Group has full editorial control over all content published on this website and the author has not been compensated or remunerated by any person to provide content for The Oregon Group, and all statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of The Oregon Group. However, from time to time, The Oregon Group and its directors, officers, partners, employees, authors, or members of their families, as well as persons who are interviewed for articles on this website, may have a long or short position in securities or commodities mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities or commodities in the open market or otherwise. By accessing and using this website, readers are cautioned to assume that each of the foregoing persons may have a financial interest in all companies and sectors mentioned on this website. Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable., and any such statements are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur.  Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities or commodities discussed herein. The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and The Oregon Group undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material. The information provided on this website is for informational purposes only and is not, directly or indirectly, an offer, solicitation of an offer and/or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or commodity, and the information provided on this website should not be construed as any advice or an opinion as to the price at which the securities of any company or commodity may trade at any time. The Oregon Group is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor.  We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient, and the information provided on this website is not and should not be construed as personal, financial, investment or professional advice. Readers are cautioned to always do their own research and review of publicly available information and to consult their professional and registered advisors before purchasing or selling any securities or commodities and should not rely on the information contained herein. Neither The Oregon Group nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein. By using the Site or any affiliated social media account, you are indicating your consent and agreement to this disclaimer and our terms of use. Unauthorized reproduction of this newsletter or its contents by photocopy, facsimile or any other means is illegal and punishable by law.

Share this article

about the author

Picture of The Oregon Group

The Oregon Group

The Oregon Group is an investment research team focused on critical minerals, mining, energy and geopolitics.


Subscribe for Investment Insights. Stay Ahead.

Subscribe and get today’s market and industry trends delivered to you in real-time.

[mepr-membership-registration-form id="4595"]


Welcome to The Oregon Group, an investment research team focused on critical minerals, mining, energy and geopolitics.

Our independent capital markets experts are sharing their boardroom expertise and institutional experience to help you profit and hedge your investment exposure during this time of unmissable opportunity.

Subscribe and get today’s market and industry trends delivered to you in real-time.

[mepr-membership-registration-form id="4595"]