Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

A Major Nickel Demand Projection by a Mining Major

Brazilian mining giant Vale is bracing for a sharp surge in nickel demand over the next several years, saying that it expects global nickel demand to hit 6.2 million tonnes by 2030, which is a 44% jump from this year’s forecast. In a statement reported on by Reuters, Vale pointed directly to the accelerating shift away from fossil fuels as the main reason behind the booming appetite for nickel, which is a key ingredient in many EV batteries.

On the supply side, Vale sees itself ramping up output to keep pace. The company is aiming to produce between 230,000 and 245,000 tonnes of nickel annually over the medium term, a solid increase from the roughly 190,000 tonnes expected in 2022. Much of that new supply is expected to come from Vale’s operations in Indonesia and Canada, with Australia also playing a growing role in global output.

But it’s not just nickel on the upswing. Copper—another key metal for electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure is also poised for strong growth. Vale estimates global copper demand will rise by around 20% by 2030, reaching 37 million tonnes. Vale’s own copper production is projected to grow as well, potentially hitting between 390,000 and 420,000 tonnes per year in the medium term. That’s a significant step up from the 285,000 tonnes it expects to produce this year.

Still, even with these increases, Vale doesn’t believe the world will be able to fully close the gap between supply and demand. That imbalance is likely to draw even more interest and investment into mining and metals in the coming years. However, when it comes to the geopolitical element, Asia still holds the lead position in that race.

Anthony Milewski

Chairman, Nickel 28 Capital

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