Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

Russian Sanctions and Nickel Price Spikes

Nickel prices just shot up 30%, hitting levels we haven’t seen since 2007. That’s what happens when the West starts talking about new sanctions on a country that supplies about 10% of the world’s nickel. New sanctions, potential bans on Russian oil, it’s the sort of thing that makes markets jittery and sends people rushing to secure supplies of… well anything critical really. And considering the massive role that nickel plays in everyday life as well as the energy transition, it shouldn’t be surprising that prices on the LME hit $38,500 per tonne, which is the highest in nearly 15 years.

Oh and let’s not forget that this is kicking off at a time when inventory levels are particularly low. LME nickel stocks are down 70% since last April, sitting at just 76,830 tonnes — barely a drop in the bucket compared to the three million tonnes the world needs.

A Reuters article on the subject referred to the spike as “scarcity pricing.” The reality is this is the latest in a series of warning signs that there’s not enough nickel production online. Good for nickel bulls, bad for battery makers and EV manufacturers that are trying to fill the massive growth in demand for their products.

Oh, and let’s not forget copper. Russia makes up about 3.5% of the global copper supply, and prices there just hit a record too: $10,845 a tonne. That’s a 10% jump this year alone.

Anthony Milewski

Chairman, Nickel 28 Capital

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