Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

What is Hydrogen?

Hydrogen (H), atomic number 1, is the simplest and most abundant element in the universe. At standard conditions, it is a colorless, odorless, tasteless, and highly flammable gas composed of diatomic molecules (H₂). Hydrogen is exceptionally light-its molecules move faster than any other gas at a given temperature, giving it the highest heat conductivity among gases1. It has a very low melting point (−259.16°C) and boiling point (−252.88°C), and is transparent to visible, infrared, and ultraviolet light. Because of its unique chemical properties, hydrogen can form both positive ions (protons) and negative hydride ions, participating in a wide range of chemical reactions.

Hydrogen for clean energy

Hydrogen is rapidly emerging as a cornerstone of the global energy transition, offering a clean, versatile alternative to fossil fuels for hard-to-abate sectors and energy storage12. Produced by splitting water molecules using renewable electricity (green hydrogen) or by capturing emissions from natural gas (blue hydrogen), hydrogen can drastically reduce carbon footprints across industries.

Why hydrogen matters

• decarbonizing industry: hydrogen is critical for decarbonizing steel, cement, chemical, and glass manufacturing-sectors where direct electrification is challenging

• clean transport: hydrogen fuel cells power heavy-duty trucks, shipping, rail, and aviation, where batteries alone may not suffice

• energy storage and grid balancing: hydrogen acts as a long-duration energy storage solution, enabling surplus renewable power to be stored and transported as hydrogen or its derivatives (like ammonia or methanol)

• heating and power generation: hydrogen can replace natural gas in heating and some power generation applications, further reducing emissions

Market growth and policy drivers

The global green hydrogen market is set for explosive growth-from $1.5 billion today to over $125 billion by 2035, driven by technology breakthroughs, falling production costs, and strong policy support. The EU and U.S. are rolling out incentives and clear regulatory frameworks, while the US Inflation Reduction Act is spurring a wave of investment and project development.

Hydrogen supply and demand dynamics

Current demand and uses:
Global hydrogen demand reached 97 million tonnes in 2023, up 2.5% from 20226. Today, most hydrogen is used in traditional applications, especially oil refining and industrial processes such as ammonia and methanol production, with only a small share going to new sectors like steelmaking, high-temperature industrial heat, transport, and power generation68. Demand in these emerging applications remains less than 0.1% of the total, but is expected to grow rapidly as clean energy transitions accelerate.

Supply sources:
Hydrogen is produced mainly via three methods:

• steam methane reforming (SMR): the dominant method, using natural gas, often without carbon capture

• SMR with carbon capture (blue hydrogen): reduces emissions by capturing CO₂

• Electrolysis (green hydrogen): uses electricity (ideally from renewables) to split water, producing hydrogen with minimal emissions

Market outlook:
By 2030, global hydrogen demand is projected to increase by 1.5 times, reaching around 150 million tonnes, with a significant share coming from new applications in industry, transport, and power. Policy incentives, such as tax credits and subsidies, are driving investment in low-emission hydrogen production, especially in the US, EU, and Asia. However, the market remains in its infancy, with further growth dependent on scaling up infrastructure, reducing costs, and aligning supply with emerging demand.

Key trends:

• traditional demand still dominates, but clean hydrogen (green and blue) is gaining traction

• policy support and subsidies are crucial for bridging the cost gap and accelerating adoption

• supply and demand balance will be shaped by technological progress, regulatory frameworks, and the pace of industrial decarbonization

Hydrogen’s unique properties and growing role in clean energy make it a strategic commodity, with supply and demand dynamics increasingly influenced by technology, policy, and global climate goals.

Cost trends and investment

Hydrogen production costs are projected to fall sharply by 2030, thanks to advances in electrolyzer technology, cheaper renewable power, and economies of scale. This cost decline will accelerate adoption in transport, industry, and energy storage, and is expected to attract major investment into infrastructure and innovation.

Challenges and Outlook

While green hydrogen faces near-term challenges-such as high costs, project delays, and competition for renewable electricity-blue hydrogen is gaining ground in the U.S., with several large-scale projects reaching final investment decision in 2025. As the market matures, hydrogen’s role as a clean energy vector will only strengthen, making it a vital component of decarbonization strategies worldwide.

Hydrogen’s versatility, scalability, and zero-emission potential position it as a game-changer for the mining sector and the broader push toward a sustainable, low-carbon future.