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China invests $57 billion to control global supply of critical minerals

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China has invested nearly US$57 billion in aid and subsidized credit to build out mining and processing projects to seize control of critical minerals across a core group of 19 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries.

A new report, compiled by AidData, systematically tracks China’s official sector financial commitments for copper, cobalt, nickel, lithium, and rare earth elements (REEs) extraction and processing operations across 165 low and middle-income countries over a 22-year period.

Global distribution of Chinas official sector loans and grants for transition mineral operations in developing countries 1 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

Key findings from the report include:

  • upstream focus: China has prioritised upstream extraction rather than midstream processing, with 92% of its transition mineral financing portfolio supporting extraction
  • copper priority: 83% of China’s official financial commitments involve copper extraction and processing operations. There is some evidence of a shift towards lithium mining operations
  • policy bank role: China’s policy banks—the Export-Import Bank of China (China Eximbank) and China Development Bank (CDB)—have extended nearly US$32 billion of credit for transition mineral operations. However, over time, China has scaled back its use of the policy banks and increased its use of state-owned commercial banks. A large network of 26 official sector creditors from China have come together to bankroll transition mineral projects in the developing world
  • Chinese ownership: 83% of China’s official sector lending for transition mineral projects in developing countries went to projects with some level of Chinese ownership. This is often achieved through the use of Chinese-owned joint ventures (JVs) and special purpose vehicles (SPVs)
  • strategic advantage: by financing overseas transition mineral operations with Chinese companies involved, China is gaining a significant advantage over Western competitors
  • early mover: China began financing overseas transition mineral projects 25 years ago, and it has devoted the vast majority of its financial support to upstream mining (extraction) operations
  • non-PPG loans: majority of China’s cross-border financial commitments for transition mineral projects are dominated by non-PPG loans (81%), meaning these loans are usually not recognised as contingent liabilities of host governments
  • host government ownership: 32.6% of China’s financial commitments for transition mineral operations supported mining sites with some level of host government ownership

Composition of Chinas transition mineral financing portfolio by supply chain segment - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

China has used its overseas lending apparatus to give its companies a competitive edge and to expand its control of the global supply chain for transition minerals. The report also notes that China has a dominant role in the midstream (processing) and downstream (product development) segments of transition mineral supply chains. For example, China refines the majority of the world’s nickel (68%), cobalt (73%), and lithium (59%). China also produces a large proportion of battery cell components.

The report suggests that China has established a foothold in the overseas transition mineral sector by helping its firms overcome the challenges of securing financing for projects.

Our analysis on how China accounts for approximately 85% of global critical mineral processing capacity:

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The Oregon Group is an investment research team focused on critical minerals, mining, energy and geopolitics.

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