For much of the past three decades, businesses operated under a powerful assumption: Commodities would remain abundant, affordable and globally accessible. If prices rose, they would fall again. If supply tightened, markets would respond. Strategy focused on efficiency, not resilience. I believe that era is over.
Today’s commodity markets are no longer shaped primarily by cyclical demand or short-term disruptions. They are being reshaped by structural forces—geopolitics, industrial policy, underinvestment and the physical realities of energy and infrastructure build-out. For corporate leaders, this is not a pricing issue. It is a strategic one.
Why Cheap Commodities Are A Thing Of The Past
The period of relatively cheap and stable commodities that defined the late 20th and early 21st centuries was not normal—it was exceptional. In studying these eras, I’ve identified a few driving factors: globalization and open trade flows, significant excess capacity built during prior investment cycles, low geopolitical friction and capital markets that consistently funded new supply. Those conditions no longer hold.
Instead, companies now face a world where:
- Critical mineral supply chains are concentrated in a few jurisdictions
- Export controls and resource nationalism influence availability
- Permitting timelines for new supply are lengthening
- Capital investment in mining and energy has lagged behind long-term demand
The result is a persistent mismatch between what modern economies want to build—and what the physical world can supply.
