Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

Electric battery demand for cobalt, graphite, nickel could more than triple by 2030; lithium to quadruple

Demand for critical minerals to produce electric batteries is expected to increase exponentially in the next 5 years, according to a new report by the International Renewable Energy Alliance (IRENA).

In particular:

demand for lithium from EV batteries could roughly x4 from 2023
to 2030
demand for cobalt, graphite and nickel could more than x3

Critical material supply and demand in 2023 and 2030 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

The reason is that the global stock of passenger electric vehicles, approximately 44 million in 2023, will need to increase to 359 million by 2030, to meet IRENA’s 1.5°C scenario. By the end of 2023, the global installed capacity for manufacturing lithium-ion batteries was almost 2 000 GWh/year. This is expected to more than triple by 2030, reaching over 7 300 GWh/year, with over 430 gigafactories in the pipeline.

So, for example, the annual demand for lithium is estimated to be 2.5-3.1 million tonnes per year (Mt/year) by 2030, with reserves and resources standing at 150 Mt and 560 Mt, respectively, indicating ample supply (USGS, 2024).

Estimated battery demand for EVs under IRENAs 1.5°C Scenario by segment 2023 2030 1 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

EV battery demand is expected to be more than 4 300 GWh per year by 2030, about a x5 increase over 2023. Apart from EV battery demand, other applications also have growing battery requirements, namely, battery energy storage systems (BESS), whose demand is anticipated to grow x6 over
2023-2030. While the anticipated growth of BESS represents a substantial rise in battery demand, the demand for EV batteries is anticipated to be about ten times greater by 2030.

However, the report highlights how substitution innovations of some materials are already reducing demand, for example, with cobalt and nickel no longer used in nearly half of the passenger EVs sold in 2023.

The expected surge demand comes after investment across the mining exploration sector has decreased over the past decade. Now, the growing demand for critical minerals essential to the energy transition has meant exploration expenditures for these materials reached an all-time high in 2023.

Total battery material exploration expenditure 2010 2023 real 2023 USD million 1 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

Our report on the accelerating race for lithium, with demand expected to face twenty years of rapid growth:

Inside the accelerating global race for lithium

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