Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence. Stay Ahead.

Global copper demand to increase 70% by 2050, to more than 50 Mt

Total copper demand is forecast to grow at an average rate of 2.6% per year to 2035, an increase from 1.9% from 2006-2021, to more than 50 Mt per year by 2050.

A new report by BHP, the world’s largest mining company by market capitalisation, states this demand will be driven by:

traditional economic growth
the Energy Transition
digital demand, primarily data centres

“In absolute terms, this is roughly 1 Mt copper demand growth per year, every year, until 2035 ‒ double the 0.5 Mt annual growth volume of the past 15 years” — BHP Insights: how copper will shape our future

The demand growth split of global copper demand is estimated at:

Traditional vs Energy Transition vs Digital split around 92% / 7% / 1%
by 2050, we predict the split to have evolved to 71% / 23% / 6%

For example, BHP expects global electricity consumption for data centres to increase from approx 2% of global demand today, to 9% by 2050. Copper demand in data centres is expected to increase x6 by 2050.

The challenge, as we have highlighted in our own report, warning we face a supply gap of nearly 10 million mt within the next ten years, is supply.

“Against optimistic supply forecasts, which include the development of all probable copper projects, a significant gap to expected demand in 2035 is evident, even with our positive view on copper scrap supply” — BHP Insights: how copper will shape our future

existing mines are estimated to be producing around 15% less copper in 2035 than in 2024
the average grade of copper mines has declined by around 40% since 1991
30-50% of global copper supply to face grade decline and ageing challenges over the next decade

BHP’s report comes as UBS also warns that increasingly tighter supplies of copper in the coming 6-12 months could lead to a deficit of more than 200,000 tons in 2025, as demand grows for the metal key to energy transition.

And Wood Mackenzie projects demand is expected to outstrip supply.

Global copper production and primary demand 1 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

For further insights, our analysis on how the explosion of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is expected to spark a 10-year critical mineral supercycle as the massive energy needs of new AI data centers will increase pressure on global supply chains already under strain to meet global net-zero targets.

Artificial Intelligence and the next critical mineral supercycle

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