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China announces rare earth export restrictions
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China has announced export restrictions on seven rare earth minerals, effective immediately, in response to the recent tariffs by US President Trump. The restrictions include:
- Samarium
- Gadolinium
- Terbium
- Dysprosium
- Lutetium
- Scandium
- Yttrium
The restrictions will impact all countries, not just the US.
China dominates the rare earth market: it’s responsible for 70% of global production and nearly 90% of processing of global output, as well as 90% of rare earth element permanent magnet production.
The export restrictions are in addition to tariffs of 34% on all US goods from April 10. The move comes the day after US President Trump announced a combined total of 54% of imports from China.
“The purpose of the Chinese government’s implementation of export controls on relevant items in accordance with the law is to better safeguard national security and interests, and to fulfil international obligations such as non-proliferation”
— China Commerce Ministry
The ban comes only months after China banned exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the US.
China’s mining investments under Belt and Road Initiative hit record high in 2024
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Investment by China in metals and mining, through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), hit new records of US$21.4 billion in 2024, an increase of 10% compared to 2023.
According to a new report by Griffith Asia Institute, the mining sector was the second largest sector with about
17.6% of the BRI overall engagement.
Engagement was particularly focused across West and Central Africa, Bolivia and Chile in Latin America, and Indonesia. Metals and minerals include coal, copper, nickel, cobalt.
When comparing construction and investment in different sectors, the report notes, it becomes clear that in mining and technology, Chinese firms are increasingly prioritizing equity investments, despite the higher risks involved.
For 2025, further stabilization of Chinese BRI engagement is expected with a strong focus on BRI country partnerships in renewable energy, mining and related technologies.
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EU approves first 47 projects worth $24 billion to secure critical raw materials supply
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The European Commission has officially approved the first 47 strategic projects under the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) to diversify and secure critical mineral supply.
The projects address 14 of the 17 strategic raw materials identified in the CRMA:
- extraction (25 projects)
- processing (24 projects)
- recycling (10 projects)
- and substitution (2 projects)
The primary focus is electric battery metals, green transition, digital transformation, and defense capabilities:
- lithium (22 projects)
- nickel (12 projects)
- graphite (11 projects)
- cobalt (10 projects)
- manganese (7 projects)
- tungsten (3 projects)
- and magnesium (1 project)
The selected projects are across 13 EU member states, include: Belgium, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden – represent a total investment of nearly US$24 billion, or €22.5 billion.
Streamlined permitting and coordinated support
To expedite the operationalization of these projects, the EU Commission, Member States, and financial institutions will provide coordinated support, particularly in facilitating access to finance and connecting project promoters with relevant off-takers.
Furthermore, the projects will benefit from streamlined permitting processes, ensuring predictability for investors while upholding stringent environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. Extraction projects will be subject to a permit-granting process not exceeding 27 months, while other projects will have a 15-month limit, in accordance with the CRMA.
Key strategic projects
The approved projects showcase a diverse range of initiatives across the EU. Highlights include:
- Ageli (France): an integrated lithium extraction and processing project by Eramet aimed at supplying battery-grade lithium
- Barroso Lithium Project (Portugal): a lithium extraction project by Savannah Lithium focused on battery-grade lithium
- Chvaletice Manganese Project (Czechia): an integrated manganese extraction and processing project by Euro Manganese Inc targeting battery-grade manganese
- NorthCYCLE (Sweden): a recycling project by Northvolt Revolt AB recovering manganese, lithium, graphite, nickel, and cobalt from batteries
- Verde Magnesium (Romania): a magnesium extraction project by Verde Magnesium SRL aimed at supplying magnesium metal
Our analysis on how Europe is struggling to avoid another geopolitical disaster, this time over critical minerals:
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Canada streamlines approval process for major mining and infrastructure projects
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Canada’s provinces and territories will be permitted to approve major mining and infrastructure projects — and will no longer require separate federal government reviews, in a sweeping reform to streamline project development in Canada.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the new “one project, one review” policy after meeting with the country’s 13 premiers, with the aim to eliminate duplicate, bureaucratic requirements.
“We will eliminate federal duplicative requirements by recognizing provincial assessments for major projects, the so-called mutual recognition… So, one project, one review, and we will work with the provinces and other stakeholders, Indigenous groups, to identify projects of national significance and accelerate the time frame to build them”
— Mark Carney, Canadian Prime Minister, told reporters in Ottawa
The government initiative extends beyond the mining sector, with Prime Minister Carney also announcing plans to remove all inter-provincial trade barriers by July 1, 2025, a move estimated to unlock C$250 billion in annual economic impact.
Key projects included in the announcement
- Cedar LNG Project: a C$5.8 billion Indigenous-led liquefied natural gas export facility near Kitimat, British Columbia, has been identified as a leading candidate for this expedited process
- Ring of Fire development: the critical minerals-rich region in northwestern Ontario is slated for quick approval under this new framework
- First Mile Fund: a new capital fund will be established to finance the construction of transmission and transportation networks linking extraction sites to existing infrastructure
- LEENSF: the Large Enterprise Economic and National Security Facility will be overseen by the Finance Ministry to provide liquidity support and funding for regional development agencies
Implications for the mining sector
This policy shift is poised to have far-reaching effects on Canada’s mining industry. By reducing regulatory overlap and streamlining the approval process, the government aims to create a more attractive environment for investment in resource extraction and critical minerals development.
The focus on critical minerals, particularly in the Ring of Fire region, aligns with global demand for materials essential to clean energy technologies and advanced manufacturing. This could position Canada as a key player in the supply chains for electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and other high-tech industries.
Additionally, the cancellation of planned increases to the capital gains tax and the consumer carbon tax signals a shift towards policies aimed at stimulating economic growth and investment across mining and the economy as a whole.
Upcoming election
The new announcements come as Canada prepares for a federal election, and although an election can throw everything “up in the air”, we suspect that — whoever wins, the fact this has been agreed by the Liberal party with all the Premiers — will mean this will now be long-term federal policy.
Our analysis on plugging Canada’s miners into America’s battery belt:
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China ramps up state investment in critical minerals as US trade tensions intensify
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The Chinese government has raised more than US$13.8bn (Rmb100bn) investment across geological exploration annually since 2022, the highest three-year period in a decade.
According to a new report by the Financial Times, over the past year, at least half of China’s 34 provincial-level governments have announced increased subsidies or expanded access for mineral exploration. This include key resource-producing regions such as Xinjiang, which has increased support for geological exploration from 150 million yuan in 2023 to 650 million yuan in 2025.
The boost in state funding and subsidies for mineral exploration and mining comes as part of President Xi Jinping’s strategy for China achieve self-sufficiency, as well as provide further leverage in the escalating trade war with the United States.
Beijing recently tightened control over exports of strategic minerals crucial for modern tech and chip manufacturing, including gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, and tungsten. This move came in response to US restrictions on tech exports to China.
China dominates mining and processing across the majority of critical minerals — with the country being the world’s largest producer of 30 out of 44 critical minerals tracked by the US Geological Survey. This includes a 95% share in rare earths production, 83% in gallium, and 81% in tungsten.
Other measures taken by China include:
- the Chinese government has allocated over US$13.8 billion (100 billion yuan) annually to geological exploration since 2022, marking the highest three-year investment period in a decade
- Xinjiang, a resource-rich western region, has significantly increased the issuance of mining exploration rights to record levels
- China has issued US$57 billion in loans over two decades via at least 26 state-backed financial institutions
- under Xi’s leadership, Beijing has implemented policies to protect its strategic resources. In 2021, China blocked foreign companies from investing, even indirectly, in mining tungsten, rare earths, and uranium
Of the 50 mineral commodities identified in the US Geological Society’s “2022 Final List of Critical Minerals,” the US was 100% net import reliant for 12, unchanged from 2023, and an additional 28 (down from 29 in 2023) had a net import reliance of greater than 50%.
In response to China’s supply chain dominance, US President Donald Trump, since his return to the White House in January, has prioritized domestic mining. In March 2025, he signed a new Executive Order invoking cold war era powers to ramp up critical mineral production across the US.
Our analysis on the challenges for American’s current critical mineral strategy:
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Trump signs Executive Order to boost domestic critical mineral production
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President Donald Trump has signed an executive order invoking cold war era powers to ramp up critical mineral production across the US. It marks one of the most aggressive moves in decades to secure domestic supply and reduce reliance on China.
Donald Trump stated the order would “dramatically increase production of critical minerals and rare earths.”
The US was 100% net import reliant for 12 of the 50 critical minerals on the 2022 critical minerals list and more than 50% net import reliant for an additional 29, according to a review in the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024.
The order “Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production” invokes the Defense Production Act, passed in 1950 after the outbreak of the Korean war, aims to expedite the development of domestic mineral resources through several key policy shifts:
- expedited permitting: within 10 days, government agencies must identify and prioritize mineral production projects for immediate approval . These projects will be fast-tracked on the Permitting Dashboard
- industry input: the National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC) will seek feedback from the mining industry to identify and address regulatory bottlenecks
- Mining Act clarification: recommendations will be prepared for Congress within 30 days to clarify regulations regarding mine waste disposal under the Mining Act of 1872
- Federal Land prioritization: the Secretary of the Interior has 10 days to identify federal lands with mineral deposits, prioritizing mineral production as the primary land use
- private sector engagement: duitable federal land sites will be identified within 30 days for private commercial mineral production, with extended use leases to be granted
- financial incentives: the administration will ensure private parties in these leases can access favorable terms under existing public assistance programs
- Capital Forum: the Secretary of Defense will utilize the National Security Capital Forum to connect private investors with domestic mineral projects
- Defense Production Act (DPA): the President’s authority under the DPA is delegated to the Secretary of Defense to promote domestic mineral production, which will be designated a priority industrial capability
- DFC fund: the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) will establish a dedicated fund for domestic mineral investments within 30 days
- Export-Import Bank guidance: the Export-Import Bank will issue guidance within 30 days for utilizing financing tools for mineral production
- mineral buyer convening: mineral buyers will be convened within 30 days to work towards a request for bids to supply minerals domestically
- small business support: the Small Business Administration (SBA) will prepare legislative recommendations within 45 days to enhance financing for small businesses in mineral production
The announcement has been widely welcomed across the industry.
“Ramping up American mining is a national security imperative, and President Trump’s strong action recognizes that. By encouraging streamlined and transparent permitting processes, combined with financing support to counter foreign market manipulation, we can finally challenge China’s mineral extortion. We applaud this strong action that confronts our mineral crisis head on and we look forward to working with the administration to ensure made in America increasingly means mined in America.”
— Rich Nolan, president and CEO, National Mining Association
There are also reports that the Trump admin plans to build critical mineral refining facilities on Pentagon military bases as part of the plan to boost domestic production and reduce dependence on China’s control of the sector, two senior administration officials told Reuters.
The strategy is a departure from the critical mineral strategy deployed by previous president Joe Biden who supported mining agreements in countries with US free trade agreements.
Our analysis on the challenges and opportunities as Trump wants to make American mining great again:
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EU approves first 47 projects worth $24 billion to secure critical raw materials supply
Canada streamlines approval process for major mining and infrastructure projects
China ramps up state investment in critical minerals as US trade tensions intensify
Trump signs Executive Order to boost domestic critical mineral production
Tin price hit 3-year high on Congo supply disruption
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The price of tin has surged to a three year high after Alphamin Resources announced the temporary closure of its Bisie tin mine in Walikale District, North Kivu Province of east-central Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The decision came after insurgent militant group Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group, advanced westward towards the mine’s location. Alphamin has evacuated all operational mining personnel, leaving only essential staff for care, maintenance, and security of the property.
The Bisie mine, the third-largest tin mine globally, produced approximately 17,300 tonnes of tin-in-concentrate in 2024, representing about 7% of global mined tin supply, with the world’s highest-grade ores.
There is currently no exact timeframe for when the mine will reopen:
“The Company is encouraged by the recent announcement that direct peace talks on the conflict are scheduled to be held in Angola on March 18, 2025. The Company will closely monitor events as they progress with a view to moving personnel back to the mine site and resuming operations when it believes it can safely do so. The Company will provide further updates when approriate”
More than 50% of tin is used as solder in circuit boards, essential for semiconductors, data centers, mobile phones, electric vehicle and batteries, as well as in solar panels — it is the solder that binds the technology revolution.
The International Tin Association estimates US$1.4 billion is needed to deliver 50,000 tons per year more tin by 2030, yet supply, instead of expanding, is tightening with global refined tin production in 2023 declining 2.1% from 2022 to 370,100t.
“This comes at a time of relatively low LME tin stocks, with LME on-warrant stocks totalling 3,500 tonnes on Thursday, down by 27% from 4,800 tonnes at the end of 2024”
— BMO Capital Markets said in a note
Our recent analysis on whether there enough tin supply to hold the tech revolution together:
US in talks with DR Congo for critical minerals deal
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The US is in early discussions with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over a potential minerals-for-military-support agreement.
The Congo is the world’s largest cobalt producer, as well as rich in copper, gold, lithium and uranium, as well as other minerals. However, the current government under President Félix Tshisekedi is under pressure from M23 rebels backed by neighbouring country Rwanda, which have recently captured significant control of mineral rich regions of the country and the cities of Goma and Bukavu.
The original report on exploratory talks in the Financial Times has been confirmed by the US State Department to Reuters.
Areas in the discussions include:
- US mining access: Congo is offering exploration rights to US companies and a potential partnership in building a strategic mineral stockpile
- military assistance: in return, the DRC wants American support in training and equipping its armed forces
- strategic value: a potential deal would give the US direct access to essential minerals like cobalt, copper, and uranium, crucial for everything from EV batteries to advanced defense systems
This potential agreement is also a direct challenge to China’s dominance in the Congo’s mining sector. Beijing has spent decades locking down supply chains in the region, and any US move to re-enter the market would be a major shift. The deal could also impact regional stability in Central Africa, with tensions between the Congo and Rwanda already volatile.
However, talks are still in the very early stages with no firm commitments — and the political situation in Kinshasa remains fragile with president Tshisekedi under increasing pressure.
No major American mining company has operated in DR Congo since Freeport-McMoRan sold its stake the Tenke Fungurume copper mine in 2016.
The discussions are developing as one of the most ambitious projects to supply anticipated demand for copper gets underway: the Lobito corridor in central Africa — 2,600km of railway linking copper mines in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to Angola’s Lobito port on the Atlantic coast. The estimated cost: US$2.3 billion.
The US and EU have signed MoUs with DRC and Zambia to build critical mineral refining capacity in the region and there are efforts, for example, by Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) to supply refiners in Canada and Japan.
Our recent analysis:
Trump signs Executive Order threatening tariffs on copper imports
US President Trump has signed a new executive order for an investigation by the Department of Commerce into possible tariffs on US copper imports.
“Our great American copper industry has been decimated by global actors attacking our domestic production. To build back our copper industry, I have requested my Secretary of Commerce and USTR to study copper imports and end unfair trade, putting Americans out of work. Tariffs will help rebuild back our American copper industry and strengthen our national defense; American industries depend on copper, and they should be made in America“
— Howard Lutnick, US commerce secretary, said in a statement
In particular, the order suggests “foreign overcapacity in smelting and refining, coupled with potential export restrictions from other nations, threaten to disrupt copper availability for US defense and industry needs.
Lutnick said American industry, as well as national defense depends on copper as a critical mineral, and so “it should be made in America, no exemptions, no exceptions… It’s time for copper to come home.”
Any investigation will be carried out under Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, which empowers the president to restrict imports to protect national security.
No timeline has yet been announced, according to Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, in the latest White House press briefing.
“As far as a date, I don’t have a specific date to read out to you, but the president is committed to implementing tariffs effectively, just like he did in his first term,” Karoline Leavitt said.
From Jan-Oct, 2024, the US imported approximately 48% of its refined copper for consumption; in October 2024, US mines produced 86,800 metric tons (t) of recoverable copper.
Our analysis on how Trump wants to make mining American again:
Congo, world’s largest cobalt producer, suspends exports
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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has announced an immediate halt of cobalt exports for four months, due to an oversupply of the market which has driven prices down.
According to a Bloomberg report, the measures came into force on February 22, 2025, after the country’s prime minister and mines minister signed a decree allowing the regulator to take temporary action, including barring exports, “in case of circumstances affecting the stability of the market.”
Congo controls an estimated 76% of global market share and supports 78% of annual supply growth in 2023.
Benchmark metal prices have fell below US$10 a pound, a level not breached for 21 years apart from a brief dip in late 2015, according to Fastmarkets data. Cobalt hydroxide, the main form of the metal produced in Congo, has fallen below US$6 a pound.
Patrick Luabeya, president of the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets, known as ARECOMS, told Bloomberg in written responses, that the decision followed a year-long review of market dynamics, revealing that “years of illegal mining and uncontrolled exports from both industrial and semi-industrial producers had led to excessive supply, posing a serious threat to the country and its domestic and international investors.”
The surge in cobalt production is largely attributed to increased output from China’s CMOC Group Ltd. at its two major mines within the DRC.
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