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From 2023 to 2035, an estimated 50%-75% of refined copper, lithium, and cobalt supply growth is expected to come from today’s leading producers, according to the latest World Energy Outlook report by the IEA. This trend reflects the concentration of planned refining and processing projects in countries that already dominate capacity, especially in:
China:
- 65% of global processing for lithium
- more than 75% for cobalt
- 90% battery-grade graphite supply
Indonesia:
- 90% of nickel growth

The continued concentration comes despite global direct government incentives for domestic manufacturing as part of clean energy support from 2020-2024, reaching US$11 billion.
However, supply growth of confirmed and announced projects is expected to be slower than growth demand, particularly for copper and lithium.
The IEA report warns that a recent sharp drop in prices in many critical minerals have helped lower clean energy costs but are reducing investment appetite for new mining and processing development — threatening future deficits, especially due to long development lead times.
“Growth in the availability of critical minerals from the pipeline of announced projects – many of which have significant lead times – is set to be slower than expected growth in manufacturing capacity for a number of critical minerals” — IEA, World Energy Outlook 2024

For example, in the IEA Announced Pledges Scenario, in 2035, for copper and lithium, there is a sizeable gap between demand and expected supply. Balances for nickel and cobalt also look tight in terms of confirmed projects.

Our recent newsletter on how America’s current critical mineral strategy threatens disaster:
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