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Resource protectionism on the rise as critical minerals race intensifies

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72 countries have seen a significant increase in interventionist policies and protectionism over the past five years, according to the latest Resource Nationalism Index (RNI) by Verisk Maplecroft, which measures government control of economic activity within the mining and energy sectors in 198 countries.

Resource Nationalism Index change in risk from 2019 Q4 to 2024 Q4 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

In total, 41 countries, responsible for 41% of global mineral output, now fall within the two highest risk categories of the RNI, up from 30 in 2019-Q4.

in Europe, the major economies of Germany, Spain, the UK and Poland, have all registered major deteriorations on the index since 2019, with initiatives such as the European Raw Materials Alliance and EU Critical Raw Minerals Act seeking to reduce reliance on external mineral sources. Germany has dropped 122 places in the ranking to become the 32nd highest risk jurisdiction globally
in the US, legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act, aims bolster domestic production of critical minerals and limit Chinese involvement
Canada and Australia have tightened trade and foreign investment rules across the sector
the 10 highest risk jurisdictions include several major mineral and oil and gas producers that have long deployed ‘traditional’ resource nationalist policies, including Venezuela (ranked 1st and highest risk), Russia (2nd), Mexico (3rd), Kazakhstan (4th), Zimbabwe (6th), and Iraq (9th)

“As state rivalries intensify, protectionism and state intervention are likely to drive further fragmentation in the global energy sector, particularly in critical minerals and renewables. Going forward, the most likely scenario is that Western nations will increasingly use a mix of trade and investment policies, along with stricter sustainability standards, to restrict trade with rivals and secure supply chains. This will create a complex risk landscape for investors across a variety of policy areas that will span the entire value chain”

— Verisk Maplecroft, Political Risk Outlook

Resource Nationalism Index 2024 Q4 risk scores - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

Our analysis on the coming critical mineral conflicts:

The critical mineral wars are coming

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