In it’s latest nuclear power estimates report, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates nuclear electrical generating capacity could double by 2050. They lay out two scenarios:
- in the low case, nuclear electrical generating capacity projected to increase by about 9% by 2030 and then increase by about 23% by 2050
- in the high case, nuclear electrical generating capacity projected to increase by about 24% by 2030 and increase by about 140% by 2050 compared with 2022 capacity
In the high case, the IAEA assumes the operating life of a number of nuclear power stations, scheduled for retirement, will be extended. This will mean only about 7% of the 2022 nuclear capacity will be retired by 2030. We can see this across UK, France and Japan, and others.
“Climate change is a big driver, but so is security of energy supply. Many countries are extending the lifetime of their existing reactors, considering or launching construction of advanced reactor designs and looking into small modular reactors (SMRs), including for applications beyond the production of electricity”— General Rafael Mariano Grossi, IAEA Director
All this additional capacity of nuclear will need uranium to power it. Our report on how uranium is at the start of a 10-year bull market, with the uranium market will be positively impacted by a large net increase in global nuclear reactors, which require uranium as fuel.