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Chinese firm wins US$498 million copper deal on US-backed Lobito railway
China NERIN Engineering will build a copper-recovery plant at the planned Zambian terminus of the Western-backed Lobito Corridor railway — exposing a gap in the strategy to secure African critical minerals.
Konkola Copper Mines has signed a US$498 million contract with China NERIN Engineering to build a tailings-recovery plant at Chingola designed to add 70,000 metric tonnes of annual copper output.
The location matters.
Chingola is also the proposed endpoint of an 830-kilometre railway connecting Zambia with Angola’s Benguela line. The US-backed route is intended to give Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo faster access to the Atlantic and provide Western markets with a more secure critical-minerals supply chain.
The new financing highlights concerns that the railway itself does not determine who builds the mines, controls the processing technology or buys the metal.
The Konkola Copper Mines project is designed to recover 70,000 metric tonnes of copper annually from tailings at Chingola. China NERIN will provide engineering, procurement and construction services, commissioning support, performance testing and training. The new KCM plant will use leaching technology to extract copper from existing mine tailings. China NERIN will provide engineering, procurement and construction services, as well as commissioning, performance testing and training.
There is no disclosed agreement requiring KCM’s additional copper to travel through Lobito or be sold to a Western buyer. Nor does China NERIN’s construction contract give it ownership of the plant or its output. KCM is 79.4% owned by Vedanta Resources and 20.6% by ZCCM-IH.
That distinction matters — but so does the contradiction. The US and its partners are financing the export infrastructure while Chinese companies continue to secure commercial positions at the production end of the supply chain.
The African Development Bank also approved a US$255 million loan and US$10 million grant in August for the Lobito railway to support Zambia’s participation. The loan represents a first tranche, with the bank planning to mobilise additional resources toward a potential US$500 million contribution. That financing is separate from the existing Angolan section. In July, the Africa Finance Corporation announced financial close on a US$753 million package, comprising US$553 million from the US International Development Finance Corporation and US$200 million from the Development Bank of Southern Africa.
The money will rehabilitate and operate the 1,300-kilometre railway between Lobito and Angola’s border with the Democratic Republic of Congo. The DFC expects the programme to increase transport capacity to 4.6 million metric tonnes annually — around ten times the end-2024 level — and reduce critical-mineral transport costs by as much as 30%.
The corridor is already carrying copper. Ivanhoe Mines sent its first shipment of 99.7%-pure Kamoa-Kakula copper anodes to Lobito during the first quarter of 2026. Ivanhoe said the rail journey from the DRC Copperbelt averaged seven days, compared with more than three weeks by truck to Durban or Dar es Salaam.
The new Konkola project places another potential source of copper freight directly beside the proposed Zambian rail connection, with KCM saying the investment forms part of Zambia’s plan to raise national copper production from 890,346 metric tonnes in 2025 to 3 million metric tonnes annually by 2031.
Lobito can reduce transport times and open a western export route. It cannot secure minerals for the West without accompanying investment in mines, processing capacity and offtake agreements. China NERIN’s KCM contract shows that the competition for African copper will be decided before the first wagon reaches the railway.
Our analysis on whether Africa’s “Copper Express” will ever be built:
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BMI raises tin price forecast to US$51,000 as AI demand strains supply
BMI has raised its 2026 average tin price forecast by 4.1% to US$51,000 a tonne, as semiconductor demand and constrained supply sustain pressure on the metal used to connect electronic components.
The increase from US$49,000, reported by Mining Weekly on September 14, comes as the market weighs growing AI investment against the prospect of more supply from Myanmar and Indonesia.
BMI expects some price moderation in Q4 2026 as supply disruptions ease and AI capital expenditure growth slows. Its new forecast is an annual average, rather than a year-end price target.
AI demand meets an uneven supply recovery
Tin’s exposure to electronics is already substantial. Solder accounted for 52% of tin use in 2024 with its role in connecting components making it a critical part of the physical supply chain behind the AI infrastructure buildout.
Find out more in our report on Artificial Intelligence and the next Critical Mineral SuperCycle
But expanding demand does not mean prices can only move higher with Myanmar is providing an early test of the market’s ability to restore disrupted supply.
The country’s Man Maw mine is gradually restarting after operations were suspended in 2023, according to International Crisis Group findings reported by AFP on September 10. China imported nearly 40,000 tonnes of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar in the first half of 2026, already exceeding the whole of 2025.
Those figures measure ore and concentrate shipments, rather than contained tin, and production remains well below pre-suspension levels, with flooded shafts and depleted higher-grade deposits complicating the recovery.
Indonesia is also attempting to improve access to legal feedstock after the government allowed PT Timah to purchase ore from local miners in Bangka Belitung, aiming to reduce illegal ore and concentrate exports, according to the ITA’s August 21 update.
The distinction matters: redirecting existing production into legal channels could improve smelter access to ore without adding an equivalent volume of new global mine supply.
Can higher prices bring new mines into production?
The longer-term constraint is investment. The ITA identifies underinvestment in exploration and development as a limitation on supply, despite abundant geological resources—a challenge we examined in our earlier analysis of tin’s role in the technology revolution.
There are projects advancing. First Tin’s updated feasibility study for Taronga in Australia envisages average annual production of 3,100 tonnes of contained tin over a ten-year mine life, according to the ITA’s August assessment.
For investors, the next signals are physical: the pace of Myanmar’s recovery, Indonesia’s legal ore deliveries and progress funding new mines. Higher prices strengthen the incentive to develop supply, but they do not settle how soon that supply will arrive.
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Uranium mine supply faces potential 46,000-tonne shortfall by 2040
- the IAEA projects 641–1,045 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050, raising both its low and high estimates
- the “Red Book” identifies more than 8.1 million tonnes of recoverable uranium resources, sufficient for its projected demand through 2050
- at 85% utilisation, even the expanded mine pipeline falls below high-case reactor requirements around 2031, leaving a role for secondary supplies and further investment
Annual uranium mine supply could fall approx 46,000 tonnes below reactor requirements by 2040 under a high-demand scenario, equivalent to 41% of projected needs, The Oregon Group calculations from the new OECD-NEA and IAEA Red Book show.
The calculation includes planned and prospective mines operating at 85% of nominal capacity. It puts annual mine output at approximately 65,000 tonnes against reactor requirements of 110,700 tonnes. Under the report’s lower-demand scenario, the same production pipeline leaves an annual gap of approximately 18,000 tonnes.
The figures exclude inventories and other secondary supplies. They measure the difference between the assessed mine pipeline and reactor requirements, rather than forecasting an unavoidable fuel shortage.
But the investment challenge extends across both demand scenarios: additional uranium will need to come from secondary sources, better-performing operations or projects beyond the assessed pipeline. That comes as the IAEA raises its nuclear capacity outlook, increasing the scale of the industry’s potential fuel requirements.
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Nuclear forecasts rise by up to 14%
The IAEA now projects 641–1,045 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050, up from 561–992 GW in last year’s assessment. The conservative estimate rises approximately 14%, while the upper estimate increases 5%.
Its annual outlook also extends to 2060 for the first time. By then, nuclear capacity could reach 696–1,284 GW, compared with 377 GW operating at the end of 2025. The high case would more than triple the operating fleet’s capacity.
Small modular reactors account for 23–28% of new capacity added through 2060, depending on the scenario. Lifetime extensions are another major variable: 46% of operating nuclear capacity is already at least 40 years old.
The Red Book separately projects annual uranium requirements rising from roughly 64,500 tonnes in 2024 to 84,800–143,900 tonnes by 2050. East Asia, driven by China’s reactor expansion, becomes the largest consuming region.
Those uranium estimates correspond to 565–916 GW of nuclear capacity in 2050, below the IAEA annual outlook’s range. The two reports therefore point towards expansion using different scenarios; their capacity and fuel-demand estimates should not be treated as a single forecast.
The mine pipeline needs more than restarts
Uranium production is already recovering. Global mine output reached 61,924 tonnes in 2024, covering approximately 96% of reactor requirements, compared with about 85% in 2022.
Combined production in 2023–2024 was approximately 20% higher than in the preceding two years. Restarts and expansions supplied much of the increase, including renewed Canadian output and the return of Langer Heinrich in Namibia and Honeymoon in Australia.
The longer-term problem is replacing depleted production while meeting additional demand. The Red Book’s expanded pipeline already includes mines that are planned or prospective but not firmly committed. Even so, its projected nominal capacity declines from 94,075 tonnes annually in 2035 to 76,485 tonnes in 2040.
The 85% operating assumption reduces those figures further. It reflects the report’s observation that actual mine output typically falls below stated capacity. At full nominal capacity, the calculated 2040 gap would still be approximately 6,500–34,300 tonnes across the two demand cases, before secondary supplies.
Restart opportunities offer some relief, but cannot be assumed to deliver their full listed output. The Red Book identifies approximately 11,750 tonnes of annual idled capacity beyond operations already restarting or firmly committed to restart. It cautions that only part may return, potentially at reduced rates, because prolonged shutdowns complicate rehabilitation and increase costs.
Resources are sufficient; developing them takes time
The Red Book identifies more than 8.1 million tonnes of uranium recoverable below US$260 per kilogram, sufficient to meet its demand projections through 2050.
That resource total is broader than the mine-capability projections, which principally cover identified resources recoverable below US$130/kgU. The calculated gaps therefore do not imply geological scarcity or rule out additional, higher-cost production.
The constraint is converting deposits into dependable supply. The NEA puts the typical interval between discovery and production at 15–20 years, making financing, permitting and development decisions increasingly important to the next decade’s output.
Exploration and development expenditure exceeded US$1.78 billion in 2023–2024, up approximately 46% from the preceding two-year period. However, drilling specifically directed towards project development remained relatively stagnant.
Geopolitical exposure adds another complication. Kazakhstan, Canada, Namibia, Australia and Uzbekistan accounted for nearly 90% of production in 2023–2024. Technical setbacks, permitting delays or disruptions in a major producing country can therefore affect a concentrated supply base.
These findings reinforce the delivery challenges explored in The Oregon Group’s coverage of Canada’s uranium exports and efforts to rebuild US uranium production.
Contracts will determine what gets built
Secondary supplies remain an important buffer, but their future availability is uncertain. The Red Book cites an estimate of 5,000–6,000 tonnes annually by 2040, while acknowledging limited visibility into stockpiles. That figure should not be treated as a guaranteed volume available to every buyer.
Higher prices could encourage additional production, while slower reactor deployment would reduce requirements. The report’s comparisons do not fully model those market responses, so the calculated shortfall is an investment signal rather than a fixed outcome.
For investors, the decisive milestones are long-term supply contracts, final investment decisions, construction and demonstrated production. The NEA identifies sustained prices supported by long-term contracts as critical to bringing new mines into operation.
The opportunity lies in projects that can turn sufficient resources into reliable deliveries before an expanding reactor fleet needs them.
Q&A
Is there enough uranium for nuclear expansion?
The Red Book finds sufficient identified resources for its demand scenarios through 2050, provided investment brings them into production.
How much could nuclear capacity grow?
The IAEA projects 696–1,284 GW by 2060, compared with 377 GW operating at the end of 2025.
Does the Red Book predict a uranium shortage in 2031?
Its expanded mine scenario falls below high-case reactor requirements around 2031 at 85% utilisation. That comparison excludes secondary supplies and does not establish an unavoidable fuel shortage.
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Canada targets C$1 trillion in investment with mining tax break and incentives
Canada has announced a five-year plan to catalyse C$1 trillion of investment, with mining and metals accounting for more than one-third of the 167 opportunities presented to global investors at the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto.
The two-day summit brought together investors from nearly 30 countries managing more than $100 trillion of assets. Ottawa said it produced almost C$500 billion of commitments, including nearly C$325 billion of bank financing across mining, energy, infrastructure, defence and technology, and close to C$100 billion from pension funds, insurers and other institutional investors.
BMO expects the wider Canadian investment cycle to strengthen. The bank forecasts mining development expenditure will rise by more than 11% over the next two years. Mining companies under its coverage are expected to spend around C$350 billion on Canadian operating costs, sustaining capital and growth projects over five years. BMO also identifies a requirement for investment in copper smelting and refining, battery precursors, rare-earth separation, magnets, graphite processing and recycling.
Importantly, the latest figures from the Ottawa summit are not mining allocations or capital already deployed. The government says approx C$280 billion of public investment and incentives is expected to help enable more than C$1 trillion from public, private and institutional partners.
The clearest new measure for miners is the Productivity Mega Deduction, a new permanent tax incentive on capital investment, which will let businesses immediately write off the cost of most new capital investments for tax purposes, announced by Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday.
The policy expands immediate tax deductions from roughly 15% to more than 65% of eligible business assets. Mining property, machinery, equipment, railways and roads can qualify, while most buildings remain excluded from the permanent measure.
Ottawa estimates the change will cut Canada’s marginal effective tax rate on new business investment from approximately 13% to 6.4%.
Mining Association of Canada president Pierre Gratton said the measure could make Canada “one of, if not the most, competitive mining tax jurisdiction in the world.” The association said earlier deductions should improve cash flow and net present value, potentially helping marginal projects and brownfield expansions meet company investment thresholds.
Ottawa also announced project-level funding with the Canada Growth Fund committing approx C$140 million to Generation Mining for its Marathon copper-palladium project in northwestern Ontario, while the Canada Infrastructure Bank added C$50 million.
The public funding anchors Generation Mining’s final C$340 million financing tranche in a stated C$1.3 billion construction package for their copper-palladium Marathon project. The company plans to begin early works in the fourth quarter of 2026, although the equity and convertible-note components remain subject to closing, regulatory and shareholder approvals. The project would add to more than US$2.7 billion of mining construction already under way in Ontario, according to Industrial Info Resources. The firm identifies a further US$43 billion of potential mining projects in the province, while warning that not all will proceed as planned.
Public markets are already reflecting stronger investor interest. As Mining Journal highlighted during the summit, mining companies claimed 18 of the 30 places in the 2026 TSX30 ranking — the sector’s highest representation since the ranking began. The group included four silver companies, three copper companies and one rare-earth company.
Carney’s government is also seeking private investment through long-term concessions to operate the four largest airports in Toronto, Montreal, Calgary and Vancouver. Ottawa will retain ownership of the land and assets and plans to reinvest the proceeds in regional transportation and other infrastructure.
Permitting remains part of the programme. Canada signed its latest “one project, one review” agreement with Newfoundland and Labrador in September, extending efforts to reduce duplication between federal and provincial assessments.
The summit has placed Canadian mining projects in front of major international institutions. The next measures of progress will be binding project finance, completed approvals, construction starts and new processing capacity.
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Russia’s sulphuric acid ban raises risk for Kazakhstan uranium supply
Russia has announced a temporary ban sulphuric acid exports until December 31, putting Kazakhstan’s uranium supply chain under renewed scrutiny after Russia provided 93.6% of the country’s acid imports in 2023.
The measure was approved by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on September 12 and will take effect within ten days of its official publication. Moscow said the restriction is intended to protect supplies for Russian industry and mineral-fertilizer producers.
This is not an immediate, unconditional shutdown as exports may continue through international transit, intergovernmental agreements or specific approval from Russia’s prime minister or deputy prime ministers.
Russia produced almost 16 million metric tonnes of sulphuric acid in 2024 but exported only around 630,000 tonnes. Industry analysis indicates that Kazakhstan was the only buyer taking Russian acid in significant industrial volumes.
2024 sulphuric-acid exports:
| Selected exporter | Exports, 2024 |
|---|---|
| Japan | 3.44 million tonnes |
| China | 2.68 million tonnes |
| Canada | 1.75 million tonnes |
| Peru | 1.15 million tonnes |
| Bulgaria | 1.13 million tonnes |
| Germany | 1.08 million tonnes |
| Russia | approximately 630,000 tonnes |
| Belgium | 584,000 tonnes |
| Taiwan* | 549,000 tonnes |
*Reported by WITS as “Other Asia, nes.”
Source: World Bank WITS table using UN Comtrade data
So the “exemption” language from Moscow matters for Kazakhstan.
Sulphuric acid is the principal reagent used to recover uranium through in-situ leaching, the production method used across Kazatomprom’s operations. The company has described reliable acid supply as strategically important to uranium output and costs.
Kazakhstan imported 624,329 metric tonnes of sulphuric acid in 2023. Russia supplied 617,126 metric tonnes, representing 93.6% of the total and up from 289,651 metric tonnes in 2022. The figures are historical and do not confirm Kazakhstan’s current exposure, but they show the scale of the established trade corridor.
Kazatomprom, which represented approx 20% of global primary uranium production in 2025, reiterated 2026 production guidance of 27,500–29,000 metric tonnes of uranium in August. However, it also raised cost guidance partly because of significant increases in sulphuric acid purchase prices.
Its planned TQZ acid plant has now slipped from Q1 2027 to between Q3 2027 and Q1 2028 after construction encountered potential paleontological specimens. Kazatomprom said the delay was not expected to materially affect mining operations, although its assessment will feed into 2027 guidance.
For investors, the Russian ban creates policy risk before it proves a physical shortage. An intergovernmental exemption could preserve Kazakh deliveries. Without one, higher regional acid costs, and eventually weaker uranium recovery, become credible risks.
The ban also puts further pressure on the global sulphuric acid supply chain already under significant stress with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
(Our recent newsletter on Strait of Hormuz is chokepoint for sulphuric acid and critical metal processing)
Estiamtes suggests the sulphuric acid crunch is now feeding directly into critical minerals production costs, with sulphur and acid accounting for an average 33% of C1 costs across key supply chains — rising to 42% for HPAL nickel and 30% for Chilean SX-EW copper.
The next signal will be whether Kazakhstan secures an exemption and whether Kazatomprom changes its production or cost guidance.
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Russia’s enriched uranium is offline — and the fuel crisis is coming
EPISODE 23: Anthony Milewski and Christian Purefoy chat to Fletcher Newton from Revelation Nuclear — a long time uranium market consultant.
Russia’s enriched uranium is effectively coming off Western markets, reshaping the global nuclear fuel landscape. US sanctions and import bans on Russian low‑enriched uranium, combined with Moscow’s own export restrictions, are forcing utilities to secure alternative supplies from Western enrichers like Urenco and Orano, and to lean more heavily on secondary inventories and under‑used capacity elsewhere. This is happening while nuclear demand accelerates from life‑extensions, new builds and data‑centre‑driven electricity growth, tightening an already stressed fuel cycle.
Because Russia still controls a large share of global enrichment capacity, taking its material “offline” for Western buyers creates a structural supply squeeze rather than a temporary blip. Contracting is shifting to long‑term, higher‑priced deals with non‑Russian suppliers, while “friendly” origin enrichment and EUP are already commanding a premium. For investors and utilities, the key themes now are: security of supply, higher conversion and enrichment prices, and growing leverage for Western uranium miners and fuel cycle companies as the market reprices away from Russian material over the rest of this decade.
“Utilities use enriched uranium, it’s got to come out of an enrichment plant, and we know Russia has met a large portion of that enrichment demand for many years. But they’re outof the market in 2027, so then the question is, how soon are we going to see new enrichment capacity?” — Fletcher Newton, Revelation Nuclear
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Uranium mine supply faces potential 46,000-tonne shortfall by 2040
Canada targets C$1 trillion in investment with mining tax break and incentives
Russia’s sulphuric acid ban raises risk for Kazakhstan uranium supply
Russia’s enriched uranium is offline — and the fuel crisis is coming
Uranium prices headed to $200?
EPISODE 22: Anthony Milewski and Christian Purefoy chat to special guest investor Mike Beck about the price of uranium and the supply-demand dynamic that may push the price significantly higher to $200.
Uranium prices are holding near multi‑year highs as the market wrestles with a structural supply deficit, underinvestment in new mines, and growing nuclear demand from life‑extensions, new builds and future SMRs. Utilities are rushing to secure long‑term uranium supply amid geopolitics, sanctions on Russian nuclear fuel, and the push for energy security in the US, Europe and Asia.
That combination is tightening the global uranium market, pushing more capital toward advanced exploration and brownfield restart projects rather than unproven greenfield ideas.
“In the next six months you’ll be seeing long-term contracts being signed at $150, $180, and probably in excess of $200 — because, if you look at the fundamentals, fuel represents such a small fraction of the operating costs compared to the capital costs that’s gone into building the nuclear reactors — the price elasticity is off the charts, you will pay whatever yo uhave to pay” — Mike Beck, investor
Uranium mining in South America
EPISODE 21: Anthony Milewski and Christian Purefoy chat to special guest Steven Gold, CEO of Jaguar Uranium, developing uranium assets in Argentina and Colombia, to create a leading supply for the world’s future energy needs.
Uranium prices are holding near multi‑year highs as the market wrestles with a structural supply deficit, underinvestment in new mines, and growing nuclear demand from life‑extensions, new builds and future SMRs. Utilities are rushing to secure long‑term uranium supply amid geopolitics, sanctions on Russian nuclear fuel, and the push for energy security in the US, Europe and Asia. That combination is tightening the global uranium market, pushing more capital toward advanced exploration and brownfield restart projects rather than unproven greenfield ideas.
South America is emerging as a key uranium mining growth region, with Argentina and Colombia at the centre of new exploration. Companies like Jaguar Uranium are advancing large near‑surface projects such as Laguna Salada and Huemul in Argentina and the Berlin project in Colombia, leveraging historic drilling, existing infrastructure and supportive “green energy transition” policies to accelerate timelines. These South American uranium assets aim to supply future nuclear energy demand while offering US‑aligned, non‑Russian uranium supply options, making “uranium mining in South America” and “Argentina Colombia uranium projects” increasingly important themes for investors focused on the nuclear fuel cycle.
“When you look around the world and ask, “Where will the next big uranium supply come from?” It’s our opinion that, against the backdrop of South America being quite experienced for centuries on the mining side … you’d be hard pressed to find a jurisdiction where the US is not incredibly eager to do business” — Steven Gold, CEO, Jaguar Uranium.
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Uranium in Namibia
EPISODE 20: Anthony Milewski and Christian Purefoy chat to Nathan Chutas, CEO and Director, of Skeleton Coast Uranium focused on discovering the next major uranium deposit in Namibia.
Uranium is trading near a six‑month high of around $90 per pound as supply risks collide with accelerating nuclear demand. Delays at Kazatomprom’s new sulphuric acid plant are constraining future output from the world’s largest producer, just as governments and utilities ramp up reactor life extensions, new‑build plans and fuel contracting to meet electrification and AI data‑centre‑driven power needs.
At the same time, long‑term contracts are tightening uncovered utility requirements into the 2030s, reinforcing the sense that the market is shifting from a one‑off price spike to a structurally tighter “second nuclear age.”
And Nambia is the world’s third largest supplier of uranium, with 7,333 tonnes of uranium production in 2024, providing an estimated 10% of global supply.
“Namibia is a big player in the global uranium market, and Namibia’s got some things going for it that make it more attractive than other places — it’s a stable jurisdiction, it’s mining friendly, and there’s three operating uranium mines and projects that are permitted with infrastructure and port facilities” — Nathan Chutas, CEO and Director, of Skeleton Coast Uranium Corp
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Big uranium supply deficit incoming
EPISODE 19: Christian Purefoy chats to Simon Clarke, Chairman of Myriad Uranium, unlocking strategic uranium deposits for the US supply chain in Wyoming, New Mexico and Arizona.
Simon Clarke is “live” from the World Nuclear Symposium 2026 in London.
Uranium is trading near a six‑month high of around $90 per pound as supply risks collide with accelerating nuclear demand. Delays at Kazatomprom’s new sulphuric acid plant are constraining future output from the world’s largest producer, just as governments and utilities ramp up reactor life extensions, new‑build plans and fuel contracting to meet electrification and AI data‑centre‑driven power needs.
At the same time, long‑term contracts are tightening uncovered utility requirements into the 2030s, reinforcing the sense that the market is shifting from a one‑off price spike to a structurally tighter “second nuclear age.”
“Everything I’m hearing about new reactors coming online, small modular reactors, new advances in technology… so it’s very clear there’s a big deficit coming in uranium, and this is set up to go significantly higher” — Simon Clarke, Chairman of Myriad Uranium
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