A complete halt in net exports of gallium and germanium from China could cost between US$1.7 billion – US$8.2 billion to the US economy, and maybe as much as US$9 billion if disrupted simultaneously.
A new report by the US Geological survey uses modeling to quantify the economic impact of China’s restrictions on these two critical minerals, vital in the production of semiconductors, fiber optics, and advanced defense systems, including 5G networks and renewable energy solutions.
China enjoys a near monopoly on global supply of both gallium and germanium:
China’s introduced restrictions on all exports of gallium and germanium on August 1, 2023, with only a “trickle” of exports in October and November 2023, leading to a spike in prices.
Read our full analysis on the significance behind China’s export restrictions of gallium and germanium: