Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

Copper output at Chile’s top producers falls 18% in May

Chile’s state-owned Codelco produced 106,300 tonnes of copper in May 2026, down 18.3% from a year earlier, while BHP-operated Escondida fell 17.6% to 108,800 tonnes and Collahuasi dropped 19.3% to 31,000 tonnes.

Codelco monthly copper output 2022 2026 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

The fall in output from the world’s largest copper producer exposes a broader global supply problem just as demand from power grids, electrification and AI infrastructure raises copper’s strategic value — showing up across mature ore bodies, complex processing circuits and large operations where even small disruptions can move the market:

Major copper supply under pressure

Producer / asset	Latest official result	Why
Codelco, Chile	May output fell 18.3% y/y to 106,300 tonnes, according to Cochilco’s monthly mine-by-company copper production data	Cochilco supports the production drop, but not a mine-specific cause. Avoid “operational strain” unless separately sourced
Escondida, Chile	May output fell 17.6% y/y to 108,800 tonnes in Cochilco data; BHP’s nine-month output to March fell 3% to 949,300 tonnes in its operational review	BHP cited lower concentrator feed grade, partly offset by record mined material and concentrator throughput
Collahuasi, Chile	May output fell 19.3% y/y to 31,000 tonnes in Cochilco data	For broader context, Glencore said its attributable Collahuasi output fell 28% in 2025 due to mine sequencing, complex ore with lower recoveries, and water constraints in its 2025 production report
Pampa Norte / Spence, Chile	BHP’s nine-month output to March fell 19% to 158,100 tonnes, and FY2026 guidance was cut to 210,000-220,000 tonnes in its operational review	BHP cited ore complexity, declining grades and reduced recoveries
Freeport-McMoRan, Indonesia	Freeport’s Q1 copper production fell to 662 million lb from 868 million lb; Indonesia output fell to 95 million lb from 296 million lb in Freeport’s Q1 results	Freeport cited lower operating rates after the September 2025 mud-rush incident at PTFI and delays to the Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up
Glencore, global	Glencore’s own-sourced copper output fell 11% in 2025 to 851,600 tonnes in its full-year production report	Glencore cited lower head grades and recoveries tied to mine sequencing and ore feedstock

There are offsets, but they are not enough to erase the risk. BHP’s Antamina output in Peru rose 19% in the nine months to March, while Copper South Australia rose 3%, helped by stronger operating performance at Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill and Carrapateena.

Counterweight supply

Producer / asset	Latest official result	Why
Glencore, global	Q1 2026 copper output rose 19% y/y to 199,600 tonnes in its Q1 production report	Glencore cited improved African copper grades and higher throughput and grades at Antamina, showing some 2025 supply weakness is reversing
Antamina, Peru	Glencore’s attributable Antamina copper production rose 41% y/y in Q1 2026 in its Q1 production report	The increase reflected mine sequencing into higher copper and lower zinc ore grades
Ivanhoe / Kamoa-Kakula, DRC	Kamoa-Kakula produced 64,328 tonnes of copper in Q2 2026 and maintained 2026 guidance at 290,000-330,000 tonnes in Ivanhoe’s July 8 update	This should not be described as “guidance deferred” on current official sourcing; Ivanhoe says H2 output should rise on higher mining rates and inventory destocking

The problem is that existing and planned mines are on track to meet only about 70% of global copper demand by 2035, as grids, data centres and electrification lift consumption.

Total copper market balance 2020 2040 - The Oregon Group - Critical Minerals and Energy Intelligence

According to HSBC Holdings Plc copper is facing a “super squeeze” (and other raw materials) is being driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and mine disruptions, colliding with rising consumption across data centers, electrification, and the defence industry.

“The longer the strait is closed, the more inventories are run down, the more likely it is that we reach ‘tipping points’ in the markets for some commodities,” say HSBC analysts in their report published June 1 report.

Our latest analysis on coppers new demand stack:

Copper’s new demand stack (and the AI chokepoint)

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